Evaluating Senators’ sophomores: Stone, Hoffman, Hammond

At this time last year, nobody was talking about the Ottawa Senators. They looked like any other team bound to finish out of playoff contention and with an early-to-mid first-round pick.

A month and a half later, nobody could stop talking about the Senators. They took the NHL by storm, bursting back to qualify for the playoffs in the final days of the regular season.

Much of that late-season surge was due to the emergence of three Ottawa rookies: right winger Mark Stone, left winger Mike Hoffman and goaltender Andrew Hammond, dubbed “The Hamburgler.” In fact, Stone and Hoffman finished the year so strong that they placed second and sixth, respectively, in Calder Trophy voting.

One year later, the Senators have been unable to rekindle the magic they had in their last 20 games of the season. Heading into Saturday, Ottawa sits seven points out of a playoff spot with 13 games remaining. Considering the teams ahead of them, which include the Philadelphia Flyers, Detroit Red Wings and Pittsburgh Penguins, it will be a tough uphill battle for the Senators to make the playoffs.

Have the Senators’ struggles been the result of sophomore slumps for Hammond, Stone and Hoffman? For the most part, the answer is no.

Stone and Hoffman have proven to be reliable top-six forwards in their second full seasons in the NHL. They both rank in the top four on the team in points and goals. Hoffman has 46 points and 25 goals, good for fourth in points and first in goals, while Stone has 54 points and 21 goals, slotting him at second in points and third in goals. The only player that has more points than Stone is All-Star defenseman Erik Karlsson.

Looking at the advanced metrics, the two young forwards have thrived as well. Stone is the team’s leader in Corsi for events per 60 minutes at 61.17, according to war-on-ice.com. Meanwhile, Hoffman is fifth on the team in on-ice PDO. Both forwards are very good at producing “high-danger scoring chances.” Hoffman and Stone are third and fourth on the team in On-Ice High Danger Scoring Chances For per 60 minutes, respectively, at 10.96 and 10.93.

As a result of this offensive success, Stone and Hoffman have gotten first and second-line minutes. At last check, Stone is playing on the top unit with Jean-Gabriel Pageau at center and Zack Smith on the opposite wing, while Hoffman is on the second line with Mika Zibanejad and Alex Chiasson. For the two of them, there’s no such thing as a sophomore slump.

Meanwhile, between the pipes, Hammond hasn’t been able to keep his success alive. After finishing last season with 1.79 GAA and a .941 save percentage, his numbers have dropped off to a 2.86 GAA and .908 save percentage. Hammond has been relegated to a backup role in favor of the more experienced Craig Anderson. Quite simply, he isn’t the same goaltender that he was last year.

Looking at Hammond in relation to other backups, his sophomore slump becomes even more clear. He sits 19th in save percentage amongst goaltenders that have played between 15 and 30 games this season. In goals-against average, he ranks 22nd in the same sample size.

This slumping year has to make Senators management a little nervous. Hammond is on a new three-year, $4.05 million deal. He isn’t expensive, but he is around for the next few years. If he continues to put up similar numbers over the last two years of this contract, he could remain a formidable backup goaltender, but the Senators probably could have traded him at his maximum value after the 2014-15 season.

It looks as if Stone and Hoffman have grown into a pair of top-class scoring forwards, and can be reliable for years. It also seems like Hammond will have some question marks going into next season. If he can rebound and produce numbers similar to 2014-15, he can be very valuable to Ottawa. But if he continues to struggle, Senators management may start kicking themselves for not trading him at maximum value.

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