With just over a week and a half remaining in the regular season, there’s still plenty to be decided around the NHL. Six Western Conference clubs have clinched playoff spots, but nobody has claimed a division yet. In the East, Washington has wrapped up the Metropolitan Division and the Presidents’ Trophy already — but no one else has even managed to punch a ticket to the postseason.
While Boston and Detroit are fighting for their playoff lives, nowhere is the competition greater than at the top of the Atlantic. The two Florida franchises have taken over to the point where it’s all but certain that the division title will go to someone from the Sunshine State — we’re just not sure if it’s the team that resides in Tampa Bay or the one in Sunrise just yet.
Entering play on Wednesday night, the Lightning and Panthers are tied for the top spot at 93 points. The two clubs have taken very different paths to this point though. Tampa made it all the way to game six of the Cup Final a year ago, then started slow this season and had to surge back in the second half. They’ve managed to pull it off though, going 26-11-1 since New Year’s.
Florida, on the other hand, missed the playoffs entirely last year. With the wealth of young talent on the Panthers roster, however, they were expected to take a considerable step forward this season. And they absolutely have, residing near the top of the Atlantic for most of the 2015-16 campaign.
So who has the ultimate edge here as the regular season winds down?
Strength of Schedule: Florida
This one’s tilted in the Panthers’ favor. Of their final six games, exactly zero are against playoff teams. In fact, the only opponents left on the schedule that are even remotely close to contending for a postseason spot are New Jersey and Carolina — both good stories, but also both clubs that are probably heading for the draft lottery here soon. Other than that, they get Montreal (twice), Ottawa and Toronto. If they deliver their best effort down the stretch, they should be in good shape.
Meanwhile, the Lightning still have difficult matchups with the Rangers and Islanders on the slate. They also get the Canadiens and Devils twice, however, so it’s not like they’re facing the most daunting schedule the rest of the way either. To be fair though, it should be noted that New Jersey has been a tough team to beat down the stretch.
Experience: Tampa Bay
There aren’t going to be too many teams at further ends of the spectrum than these two. Florida has one of the youngest rosters in the NHL, and this is their coach’s second year behind their bench. In many ways, simply getting to this point has already made this a successful season — though they obviously want more, now that they’re here.
On the other hand, Tampa just went to the Stanley Cup final nine months ago. And it was almost an identical lineup to the one Jon Cooper is trotting out there this season. This is the time of year when that experience starts to pay dividends.
08 March 2016: Tampa Bay Lightning goalie Ben Bishop (30) during the NHL game between the Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning. (Photo by Mark LoMoglio/Icon Sportswire)
Goaltending: Tampa Bay
The edge has to go to the Lightning here. Ben Bishop is a likely Vezina finalist, and might even win the award outright. When the guys in front of him were inexplicably struggling to score earlier this season, he kept them in games. A strong case could be made that he’s legitimately been the best player at his position in 2015-16, so he has to get the nod in this matchup.
That said, Roberto Luongo has been everything the Panthers could have ever hoped when they traded for him two years ago. He’s kept them in games, even on the nights when they don’t have their best stuff. And while that has happened a lot less this season than it did a year ago, it’s still always a possibility with such a young nucleus. Having that stability between the pipes has been monumental for this group — not only in terms of their overall record, but for their collective development as well.
Tiebreakers: Tampa Bay
If it somehow came down to head-to-head record, Florida would have the advantage, after going 4-1 against Tampa this season. But the first tiebreaker is actually regulation and overtime wins (ROW), and the Lightning are comfortably ahead in that department, 41-35. If the Panthers could somehow make up that deficit, the two teams wouldn’t be anywhere near tied in the standings anymore anyway.
X-Factor: Florida
As noted earlier, experience is always a good thing to have at this time of year. And that doesn’t change in this scenario either. But it is worth noting that Florida is going to be under a lot less pressure than Tampa when the puck drops on the playoffs. And that can be a nice little advantage as well.
Gerard Gallant’s group won’t be content just making an appearance in the postseason — not after the year they’ve had. But it’s not like they’re going to face intense media scrutiny if they don’t make a deep run. The Lightning, on the other hand, could very well be losing Steven Stamkos for nothing this summer if a new deal isn’t worked out. It’s all or nothing time.
Plus the Panthers have that whole Kevin Spacey thing going on. And you can’t put a statistical value on that.
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