The mystery of the Senators’ strange penalty kill

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The Ottawa Senators’ penalty kill is a mess.

Truthfully, their penalty kill isn’t alone in that distinction, as the team as a whole has been mediocre at best in 2015-16. With a handful of games remaining on the season, the Senators sit 10 points out of a wild card spot with their playoff hopes all but lost.

However, while much of Ottawa’s 2015-16 performance has been underwhelming, their penalty kill has gone one step further. It hasn’t just been bad, it’s also simply been strange, with the club seemingly focusing on piling up shorthanded goals while failing to actually defend against opposing powerplays.

Let’s start at the beginning.

There’s no denying that Ottawa’s penalty kill has been terrible this season. The club ranks second to last in the league in regards to penalty kill effectiveness, having stopped their opponent’s man-advantage chances just 75.4 percent of the time.

They sit just one percent higher than the last-place Calgary Flames, and are also cozy with the Flames in regards to their overall goals-against per game. Both clubs rank among the only three NHL teams who allowed over three goals-against per game this season – the Flames sit last in the league while Ottawa ranks third-last with an even 3.00 goals against per game.

Suffice to say, subpar goaltending surely played a key role in Ottawa’s horrid penalty-killing this season. It doesn’t matter how well you implement your defensive strategies on the penalty kill if your netminder doesn’t make the saves that need to be made. With the third-worst goals-against per game mark in the league, it’s fair to say the Ottawa’s goaltending group didn’t accomplish that feat this season.

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March 12, 2016: Toronto Maple Leafs Center William Nylander (39) stickhandles the puck as  Leafs Right Wing Milan Michalek (18) and Ottawa Senators Defenceman Cody Ceci (5) clash against the boards. (Photo by Steve Kingsman/Icon Sportswire)

Their defense didn’t do too well either. Ottawa’s blue line has been extremely porous all season, allowing their netminders to be peppered with shots. The Senators rank last in the league in terms of shot differential per game, as they fire an average of 28.4 shots per game but give up 32.9 per game (the latter of which is also worst among all NHL clubs).

That lackluster defensive effort obviously didn’t improve when down a man, meaning the Senators’ cage was ripe for the picking when powerplay units took the ice.

And make no mistake, the Senators’ penalty kill woes have come up often, and have most certainly played a key role in the team’s 2015-16 downfall. Ottawa has allowed at least one powerplay goal in 42 of their 76 games this season (i.e. in 55 percent of their games). They’ve allowed more than one powerplay goal on 12 different occasions – the worst of which was a 7-3 loss to the Boston Bruins in which the Senators gave up an astounding four power play goals against.

However, all of this comes with an interesting caveat. Despite the Senators’ horrid penalty killing this season, they’ve been a force when it comes to scoring shorthanded goals. Ottawa currently leads the league with 15 shorthanded goals, sitting with a full five more shorthanded tallies than the next highest team (the Dallas Stars).

That isn’t just an interestingly high number within the context of this season. The Senators’ 15 shorthanded goals are in fact the most scored by any NHL team in nearly a decade. The last team to score that many shorthanded tallies was the 2008-09 Philadelphia Flyers. The last time any team had more than 15 was in 2007-08, when Chicago finished with 18 and Ottawa racked up 17.

But there’s a significant difference with all of those offensively gifted penalty kill units – they were also strong in terms of actually killing penalties.

Looking at the 10 teams who have scored the most shorthanded goals since 2007-08 (a list upon which the 2015-16 Senators sit third), one number stands out among the rest. Nine of those teams had penalty kill percentages over 80 percent, with over half sitting above 83 percent. However, the 2015-16 Senators sit last on that list with only 75.4 percent, piling up shorthanded tallies without that supplementary defensive skill.

The success of Ottawa’s penalty kill can be somewhat debatable though. By traditional standards, they’re most certainly an unsuccessful unit, as they’ve allowed the second-most powerplay goals against in the league (58). However, the Senators’ aggressive tactics while shorthanded have also netted them 15 goals of their own, which takes their overall shorthanded goal differential down to minus-43 – a better mark than many of their fellow subpar penalty killers this season.

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23 February 2016: Goalie Craig Anderson #41 of the Ottawa Senators makes a save  while Senators Defenceman Mark Borowiecki #74 ties up Mark Letestu #55 of the Oilers. (Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

It could be argued, then, that the Senators redeemed themselves slightly by driving offense while shorthanded, making up for their porous defense and goaltending. The true question is how much one affects the other.

That is, if the Senators’ shorthanded goals are independent of Ottawa’s shorthanded defensive struggles, then they are a clear positive. However, if the Senators’ penalty killing effectiveness has suffered overall due to a focus on scoring shorthanded goals, then clearly there is a tradeoff happening that is rooted in poor strategy.

Arguing for the merit of Ottawa’s shorthanded offensive focus would be easier if the Senators were about to begin a postseason run. However, with the club headed for an early summer, the issue seems to swing more in the direction of Ottawa’s shorthanded strategy failing them overall in 2015-16. Regardless of the degree to which that shorthanded offense mitigated Ottawa’s defensive woes on the penalty kill, the fact is the Senators failed to control games via the penalty kill as well as teams who made it to the playoffs.

And though they may have gotten 15 of them back, the club still allowed a staggering 58 man advantage goals in 2015-16 – a quarter of their total goals against (228).

With an offseason coaching change seeming more and more likely with each passing game, it seems as though the Senators will likely end up heading into 2016-17 with an entirely new penalty kill strategy.

Whether or not they utilize the shorthanded offensive skill they did this season, one thing remains clear – the club will have to whip their penalty kill defensive play into shape if they hope to remain a part of the playoff conversation next time around.

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