Column: Nazem Kadri doesn’t need to prove himself

There are plenty of narratives surrounding the upcoming contract of 25-year-old Nazem Kadri.

Some say he needs to grow up.

Last season, the former seventh overall pick, drafted in the same summer as team leaders like John Tavares, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Victor Hedman, and Matt Duchene, was suspended by the Toronto Maple Leafs for oversleeping and missing a team meeting. It’s no secret that the team then suspended him for additional games for compounding off-ice issues, and he seemed to need the “come to Jesus” chat that new head coach Mike Babcock had with him over the summer.

That’s not counting his on-ice play, either. From multiple suspensions for illegal checks to the head, to a monetary fine for making a throat-slashing gesture at another player mid-game, Kadri plays with an edge — and may cross a few lines when he does.

Others say his game just isn’t where it should be for a first, or even second, line center.

With 12 goals and 35 points in 63 games this year, Kadri is once again on pace for a season with fewer than 20 goals. He’s only hit the 20 goal mark once, and that was his only 50-point season, to boot. He’s producing middle six numbers, and that’s created a sense of hesitation when it comes to shelling out money.

A closer look, though, suggests that neither narrative should be an issue this summer.

In terms of shot generation, Kadri’s numbers have skyrocketed this year. He’s gone from 148 shots recorded in 2013-14 and 176 in 2014-15 to a whopping 221 this year, and his shot attempts, which includes shots that get blocked or miss the net, have gone up as well.

This won’t account for shot quality, of course. It’s likely that when a player starts to put more pucks on net, the overall shot quality will decrease unless he personally has seen a jump in his overall talent level by enough of a margin to produce higher-quality shots in a bigger bulk.

05 March 2016: Toronto Maple Leafs center Nazem Kadri (43) and Ottawa Senators left wing Nick Paul (13) in action. (Photo by Nick Turchiaro/Icon Sportswire)

This could account for his shooting percentage dropping from 13.5% the first year to 10.2% the second year and 5.4% this year. Unless he somehow became a more accurate shooter, his shooting percentage will drop inversely related to his shot volume – but hockey is still a game of luck and chance, so his chance of finding the back of the net has still gone up with his shot counts. As a result, we can assume that he could see his numbers go back up at some point.

There’s also his possession, though, which is an underrated part of Kadri’s game.

Just earlier this week, the Chicago Blackhawks inked depth center Marcus Kruger to a three year deal worth just over $3 million per season. The reasoning, in theory, was that his possession metrics make him one of the best defensive forwards in the NHL, even if his offensive production leaves something to be desired.

Kadri, since joining the Leafs, has also been a possession wizard. He has never fallen below a positive relative Corsi For percentage, meaning that his possession metrics, how often he’s in control of the puck in relation to the rest of his teammates, is above the team’s average.

This year, his CF% relative is a 2.5%, last year it was a 5.1%. Year-to-year statistics suggest that he’s an improvement over the rest of his teammates in that area, which is something that teams like the Leafs should hold in high regard.

Still, it all circles back to the maturity narrative, but that shouldn’t be much of a concern any more.

Back when Mike Babcock was first hired by the Toronto Maple Leafs, he called Kadri to talk to him about his future with the team and what would take to become that player. Sportsnet did a longform feature on the second chance; they asserted that “Mike Babcock will turn Nazem Kadri into a star”, and we have no reason to believe that isn’t what’s happening. The Toronto Maple Leafs have been miserable this year, but Kadri has done everything that’s asked of him.

Feb. 29, 2016; Toronto, Ontario Canada: Tampa Bay Lightning Goalie Andrei Vasilevskiy (88) makes a save against Toronto Maple Leafs Center Nazem Kadri (43). (Photo by Kevin Sousa/Icon Sportswire)

The Leafs were structurally deficient for the majority of Kadri’s career, but he’s produced exactly what was asked of him – in other words, he’s increased his shots and maintained positive possession metrics through it all. He’s hit 20 goals in a season, increased his playmaking this year via an uptick in assists, and all signs point to a young player who’s only going to continue getting better.

Even on what has looked like one of the least talented Toronto lineups in Kadri’s tenure with the club, he’s managed to continue on an upward trend in everything but shooting percentage – and that’s not enough to suggest that he deserves anything less than top six money.

Some may compare the Kadri situation to the Mikkel Boedker situation for the Arizona Coyotes (and now the Colorado Avalanche), looking at two young forwards who want a lot of money but haven’t offered what is perceived to be their expected outputs. One of those two players, though, has struggled on all fronts – possession, scoring, and consistency – and that player isn’t Kadri.

While it will likely take some negotiation, make no mistake, Nazem Kadri’s next contract will be worth it for the Maple Leafs.

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